152 CHAPTER 4. POINT SITUATION JUDGMENT
If we draw or call pon on wr, we can only get 1st with tsumo, but with any of eyzv
tsumo or chii (so 8 types), we can win from anywhere. Accordingly, we should not take tenpai with
wr.
Push-fold judgment in all last
Placement points of course have a big inuence on push-fold judgment.
Suppose that under standard rules (25000 start 30000 end, 10-30 uma, so 45/5/-15/-35), we’re
in 2nd while an opponent has called riichi, and that if we win, we will certainly be rst, but if we
deal in, we’ll certainly be last. When should we push in this situation?
Since both of these scenarios represent a change of 40000 placement points, we should push if
win rate > deal-in rate. Even if they’re the same, we should push since the opponent might tsumo
and lower our placement. Since this will be the case even with a bad wait tenpai, we should attack
with all but the most dangerous tiles.
The decision gets more dicult in iishanten. With a wide iishanten (about 20% chance to draw
into tenpai), we should push, but with a narrow iishanten (about 10%) it’s no problem to fold.
The probability of an opponent tsumo or opponents dealing into each other is dicult to estimate
making push-fold judgment in all last very complex. We can gure out which opponents will push
or fold not just from their discards, but also from their placement and point dierence (last place
will push, an opponent who can’t realistically lose placement will also push, 1st place with a big lead
will often fold). In general, we should start by thinking how much point each placement is worth,
then estimating the chances and eects on placement of winning, dealing in, opponents dealing into
each other and getting tsumo, and weighing the relative expected placement points of pushing and
folding from there. Since it takes a lot of time to estimate all of these variables, we should start
thinking about this as soon as all last starts.
2nd place, winning gets us 1st, dealing in gets us 3rd but certainly not last
We should attack even if win rate/deal-in rate = 1/2, so with any iishanten or even a good 2-shanten.
Conversely, if we can’t get 1st and can get 4th, we shouldn’t attack unreasonably. Even if folding
would certainly get us 3rd, we should still only push if win rate > deal-in rate.
1st place in tenpai and an opponent is also in tenpai
If the opponent is a non-dealer and we can read that dealing in will let us keep 1st, we should
attack. If we are under threat of losing 1st place from the other 2 opponents and our hand is
slow to tenpai, we should even deal in on purpose (if our hand is fast it’s better to attack). While
reading the wait is hard, it’s not hard to discard tiles that are safe against the other two opponents
but not against the third. Even against riichi, it’s rare to deal into a baiman (or haneman when
playing without aka) so it’s not necessary to fold against a non-dealer if we’re safe against such
a deal-in and threatened by the dealer. However, if we’re playing in a system where raw points
impact results, we should almost never deal in on purpose.
If dealing in would drop us to 2nd, while a tsumo or ron of another opponent would let us keep
1st, we should usually fold even from tenpai. On the other hand, if we aren’t safe against a tsumo,
we should push unless just it’s before a draw and we’re safe against no-ten payments.